Inicio Estatal La seguridad alimentaria futura del mundo peligra debido a múltiples desafíos: FAO

La seguridad alimentaria futura del mundo peligra debido a múltiples desafíos: FAO

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La capacidad futura de la humanidad para alimentarse está en peligro a causa de la creciente presión sobre los recursos naturales, el aumento de la desigualdad y los efectos del cambio climático, según un nuevo informe que publica hoy la FAO.
Aunque en los últimos 30 años se han logrado avances reales y muy importantes en la reducción del hambre en el mundo, “el aumento de la producción alimentaria y el crecimiento económico tienen a menudo un alto costo para el medio ambiente”, advierte el documento El futuro de la alimentación y la agricultura: tendencias y desafíos.
“Casi la mitad de los bosques que en tiempos cubrieron la Tierra –se asegura- han desaparecido. Las fuentes de agua subterránea se están agotando rápidamente. La biodiversidad ha resultado seriamente dañada”.
Como consecuencia, “los límites del planeta pueden verse superados de continuar las tendencias actuales”, señala el Director General de la FAO, José Graziano da Silva, en su introducción al informe.
Para 2050, la humanidad rozará posiblemente los 10 000 millones de personas. En un escenario de crecimiento económico moderado, este aumento de población impulsará la demanda mundial de productos agrícolas en un 50 por ciento más sobre los niveles actuales, según pronostica El futuro de la alimentación y la agricultura, intensificando la presión sobre unos recursos naturales que ya escasean.
Al mismo tiempo, habrá más personas consumiendo menos cereales y mayores cantidades de carne, frutas, hortalizas y alimentos procesados, resultado de una transición en curso de los hábitos alimentarios a nivel global que seguirá añadiendo mayor presión, lo que causará más deforestación, degradación de la tierra y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero.
Junto a estas tendencias, el clima cambiante del planeta creará obstáculos adicionales. “El cambio climático afectará a todos los aspectos de la producción alimentaria”, según los expertos. Aquí se incluyen una mayor variabilidad de las lluvias y el aumento de la frecuencia de sequías e inundaciones.
Para alcanzar el hambre cero, debemos redoblar nuestros esfuerzos
La pregunta clave que plantea hoy la FAO en su publicación es si, de cara al futuro, los sistemas agrícolas y alimentarios mundiales sean capaces de satisfacer de manera sostenible las necesidades de una creciente población mundial.
¿Una respuesta sucinta?: sí, los sistemas alimentarios del planeta son capaces de producir alimentos suficientes para hacerlo, y de manera sostenible, pero aprovechar ese potencial -y asegurar que toda la humanidad se beneficie de ello- requerirá “profundas transformaciones”.
Sin un impulso por invertir y readaptar los sistemas alimentarios, demasiadas personas seguirán padeciendo hambre en 2030, año en el que la agenda de los nuevos Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) ha fijado la erradicación de la inseguridad alimentaria y la malnutrición crónica.
“Sin esfuerzos adicionales para promover el desarrollo en favor de los pobres, reducir las desigualdades y proteger a las personas vulnerables, más de 600 millones de personas estarán todavía subalimentadas en 2030”, según el estudio. De hecho, el ritmo actual de progreso ni siquiera sería suficiente para erradicar el hambre para 2050.
¿De dónde provendrán nuestros alimentos?
Dado el escaso margen para expandir el uso agrícola de más tierras y recursos hídricos, los aumentos de la producción necesarios para satisfacer la creciente demanda de alimentos tendrán que venir principalmente de mejoras en la productividad y de la eficiencia en el uso de los recursos.
Sin embargo, existen signos preocupantes de que el crecimiento de los rendimientos se está estabilizando para los principales cultivos. Desde la década de 1990, los aumentos medios en los rendimientos del maíz, arroz y trigo a nivel mundial se sitúan por lo general poco por encima del 1% anual.
Por ello los autores subrayan que para hacer frente a estos y otros desafíos esbozados en el informe, seguir funcionando como hasta ahora no es una opción.
“Será necesaria una profunda transformación en los sistemas agrícolas, las economías rurales y la gestión de los recursos naturales si queremos hacer frente a los múltiples desafíos que tenemos ante nosotros y aprovechar todo el potencial de la alimentación y la agricultura para garantizar un futuro seguro y saludable para todas las personas y para todo el planeta”, dicen.
“Los sistemas agrícolas –añaden- que requieren un uso intensivo de insumos y recursos y que han causado deforestación masiva, escasez de agua, agotamiento del suelo y niveles elevados de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, no pueden ofrecer una producción agrícola y alimentaria sostenible”.
Más con menos 
El principal reto es producir más con menos, preservando y mejorando al tiempo los medios de subsistencia de los pequeños agricultores familiares y asegurando el acceso de los más vulnerables a los alimentos. Para ello, se necesita un enfoque de doble vía que combine la inversión en protección social -para abordar de inmediato la subalimentación- e inversiones en actividades productivas en favor de los pobres -en especial la agricultura y en las economías rurales- para aumentar de forma sostenible sus oportunidades de obtener ingresos.
El mundo tendrá que cambiar a sistemas alimentarios más sostenibles que hagan un uso más eficiente de la tierra, el agua y otros insumos y reduzca enormemente el uso de combustibles fósiles, lo que conducirá a un drástico recorte de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y una disminución de los residuos. Esto exigirá más inversiones en sistemas agrícolas y agroalimentarios, así como un mayor gasto en investigación y desarrollo, según el informe, para promover la innovación, apoyar el aumento sostenible de la producción y encontrar formas mejores de abordar cuestiones como la escasez de agua y el cambio climático.
Tendencias y desafíos
El informe de hoy identifica 15 tendencias y 10 desafíos que afectan a los sistemas alimentarios mundiales:
15 tendencias
• Una población mundial en rápida expansión marcada por “puntos críticos” de crecimiento, urbanización y envejecimiento
• Diversas tendencias en el crecimiento económico, ingresos familiares, inversión agrícola y desigualdad económica.
• Gran incremento de la competencia por los recursos naturales
• Cambio climático
• Estancamiento de la productividad agrícola
• Enfermedades transfronterizas
• Aumento de conflictos, crisis y desastres naturales
• Pobreza, desigualdad e inseguridad alimentaria persistentes
• Transición alimentaria que afecta a la nutrición y la salud
• Cambios estructurales en los sistemas económicos e implicaciones en el empleo
• Aumento de la migración
• Cambios en los sistemas alimentarios y sus repercusiones en los medios de subsistencia de los agricultores
• Persistencia de las pérdidas y el desperdicio de alimentos
• Nuevos mecanismos de gobernanza internacional para responder a los problemas de seguridad alimentaria y nutricional
• Cambios en la financiación internacional para el desarrollo
10 desafíos
• Mejora sostenible de la productividad agrícola para satisfacer la creciente demanda
• Garantizar una base sostenible de recursos naturales
• Abordar el cambio climático y la intensificación de las amenazas naturales
• Erradicar la pobreza extrema y reducir la desigualdad
• Acabar con el hambre y todas las formas de malnutrición
• Hacer que los sistemas alimentarios sean más eficientes, inclusivos y resilientes
• Mejorar las oportunidades de obtener ingresos en las zonas rurales y abordar las causas profundas de la migración
• Reforzar la resiliencia frente a las crisis prolongadas, desastres y conflictos
• Prevenir amenazas transfronterizas y emergentes para los sistemas agrícolas y alimentarios
• Abordar la necesidad de una gobernanza nacional e internacional coherente y eficaz

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